Wednesday, April 16, 2008

Apophis Is Closer Than NASA Figured

Back in November 2005, NASA estimated, that Apophis (previously known as 2004 MN4), had a 1 in 5500 chance of hitting Earth in 2036.



No, not Apophis, the Goa'uld System Lord, but the killer asteroid (pictured below).



Well, it turns out that NASA miscalculated...

German Schoolboy, 13, Corrects NASA's Asteroid Figures: Paper

Turns out the odds of Apophis, the killer asteroid hitting Earth in 2036 are closer to 1 in 450!!!!

I've read reports of the odds being 1 in 45,000, then 1 in 5500, and now 1 in 450. I'm wondering if the highly paid brains at NASA know how to keep track of their zeros.

18 comments:

JM said...

Let's see... Iraq, Katrina, killer asteroid. HAT TRICK!

jan said...

I wish they'd get it straight. I need to make plans.

cube said...

jan: Mars?

Kat said...

Yeah I heard that on the news last night. So in 2036 we're pretty much all screwed or not :)

David Amulet said...

Two words: Big-ass rounding error.

(Yes, it's intentional.)

Brooke said...

Whoa. 1 in 450?!? That sucks!

You know those guys at NASA stink when kids are correcting them... And now they want to start cooking with anti-matter! YIKES!

Ken Albin said...

I guess rocket science isn't what it used to be!

birdwoman said...

I must be very tired. It took me a minute to get David Amulet's comment.

(*)>

Dr. John said...

When Kat says "we're screwed" it seems that she is quite literal as Apophosis has a bit of a phalic shape to it...

Jamie Dawn said...

Smart kid.
Bad news.

Caz said...

Rocket science never was Ken.

It's only ever been rocket engineering.

(I've always presumed that "it's not rocket science" was intended to be ironic, non?)

Very smart kid. He should be proud.

Now, someone remind me: how long does that mean I have before I need to be packed?

nanc said...

happy to say i'll probably be gone by then.

putcher hardhats on!

*8]

cube said...

Engineering is a science, no?

If we're wise, we'll push math & science in the schools and drop the mulitcultural crap. By 2036, our smarter population will figure out how to stop the killer asteroid.

Dr. John said...

If Bruce Willis is still alive then he could resurrect his career for another stupid sequel movie (but this time it would be for real...)

cube said...

dr. john: Ha ha. God help us if we've got to depend on an actor (even one as good as Bruce Willis) for our salvation.

I think I'd rather put my money on the scientists. I'm just saying...

Caz said...

Hey, there are worse looking guys who could save us.

I say: let Bruce and his endearing crooked smile have the job!

Scientists and engineers would disagree, hence groups such as: "Scientists and Engineers for America"

cube said...

caz: I was merely referring to the old debate of science versus art.

Engineering is more science than say medicine, which is both science and an art.

steven said...

check against hopi prophecy - blue star kachina.(includes the time period of seven years between first and second pass through orbit)
i have also found reference and timings for "the destroyer" in the kolbrin bible text, more good reading.
I also noticed that the hopi prophecy and the kolbrin bible text match in their description of what the times will be like when the destroyer returns.
regardless of what they estimate and how hard they try to stop it - the message is clear that science does not have all the answers